Israel and Hamas: Post 2
Photo by Emad El Byed on Unsplash
It has been seven days since my original posting on this crisis. I shared a series of predictions on how events would likely unfold in this tragic situation. Hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. The developments in the past week have not been encouraging. I am not surprised but it is a sobering reality.
First, a quick summary on the original perpetrators. Who is Hamas and what is their history and what are their objectives? I suspect that most Americans, afflicted with a congenital disinterest in international affairs, have no clue on Hamas or their origins. A basic profile follows:
Hamas was created in the late 1980s. It is a spin off of the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Their founding charter is unambiguous – they call for the destruction and elimination of the Israeli state and seek the establishment of an Islamic Republic in the historic Palestine areas, which include Israel proper, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In 1993, the Palestinian Liberation Organization, led by Yasir Arafat, entered into the Oslo Accords with Israel. The PLO recognized the legitimacy of the Israeli state and assumed control over Gaza and certain sections of the West Bank. The hope and plan was that effective implementation of Oslo would lead to a two state solution – Israel and Palestine. Hamas immediately condemned the 1993 Oslo agreements and consistently reasserted its unwillingness to recognize Israel as a state. Hamas and the PLO then began an intense political rivalry in Gaza and the West Bank, with frequent violent exchanges.
The Oslo accords did not lead to a two state solution – the reasons too numerous and complex to expound upon here. The bottom line is Israel departed the Gaza Strip in 2005 and imposed a full economic blockade on Gaza. Elections were held in Gaza in 2006 and Hamas prevailed over the PLO – which came as a shock to many in the west. Why? The Palestinian Authority in Gaza was corrupt and it failed to deliver on the promises of Oslo. The economy in Gaza was poor. Hamas provided social services and continued to launch periodic rocket and suicide attacks against Israel. The bottom line is Hamas was the new Palestinian governing entity in Gaza. Egypt joined the Israeli blockade of Gaza because it feared the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic Fundamentalism. The United States and the European Union designated Hamas as a “terrorist organization” which led to further sanctions against Hamas. International aid originally assigned to the Palestinians was cut off because of Hamas' pariah status. Hamas responded by conducting systematic rocket attacks into Israel in 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2021. Israel retaliated on a regular basis. The death toll was significant. Low grade armed conflict between the IDF and Hamas has been part of the regional fabric for 20 years.
Hamas has survived because it made new "friends" – various actors attempting to embellish their Islamic credentials. Qatar provides billions of dollars annually. Iran matches those contributions with a focus on the supply of sophisticated weaponry, including rockets. Turkey hosts major Hamas leaders. Hamas lives off the generosity of others, most of whom are bad actors in their own right. Nevertheless, Gaza remains a hell hole. A poor economy, terrible infrastructure, overcrowded, 2 million people in very tight quarters. Hamas is bad news – believers in jihad – aggressively anti Semitic. Hamas has no redeeming qualities and their true level of support in the Palestinian community is unknown. There have been no elections in 18 years and Gaza is a police state.
Three big events occurred this week. First, a major hospital in Gaza was struck by an exploding missile. Estimated 500 dead – many children. Hamas and the Arab states immediately blamed Israel. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, Iran and Egypt responded with unbridled outrage. Qatar and Jordan pulled their Ambassadors from Israel. The Israelis then publicly disclosed visual and audio evidence showing the explosion was actually caused by a misfired Hamas rocket. US intelligence concurs with the Israeli assessment. The US shared the intelligence with our “friends” in the Middle East – Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. Do any of them reverse course and admit their mistake? No! They are afraid of Arab streets and are unwilling to publicly challenge the narrative of Israel's bad behavior. No profiles in courage here and don't expect any from this crowd in the future. They will adhere to the narrative established by the Arab social and public media structure. Disappointing, but not surprising.
Secondly, President Biden visited Israel to publicly display unconditional American support for Israel – including the right to eliminate Hamas completely. He was effective and emotional. The Israelis were very appreciative. Unfortunately, the Arab states and the Palestinian Authority cancelled their meetings with him in protest of the missile “attack” on the hospital. People rarely cancel audiences with an America's president – not a good sign. Biden currently has congressional and public support for his crystal clear views on the conflict – let's see how that evolves as Palestinian civilian casualties mount.
Finally, there are growing reports of significant Palestinian casualties from Israeli airstrikes and rocket attacks in Gaza. As I expected, the narrative quickly becomes more complicated for Israel. The United Nations and respected human rights organizations remind everyone that Israel – no matter how aggrieved and how justified in a military response must follow the Rules of War. This means no targeting of civilians and no indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks that put civilians at risk – even when pursuing legitimate military targets. Plus, is a full blockade of food, water, power and health supplies legal under international humanitarian law? Is ordering Palestinians to flee south in Gaza a forced migration which also runs afoul of international law? Legitimate issues! Demonstrations protesting the Israeli incursions into Gaza have begun in major European cities. I do not see how these international law concerns will be addressed to the satisfaction of the global community. Israel is determined to achieve total victory over Hamas. I sincerely doubt the military operation can succeed without horrible collateral civilian losses in Gaza. Stay tuned – it will get messier by the day.
