Israel and Hamas: Post 1
It has been four days since the horrific an unprecedented attack and Israel by Hamas. 1400 Israelis dead –the vast majority civilians. There are 240 hostages, captive and under Hamas control. A 22 mile incursion into Israel proper with 20 towns and villages experiencing death and destruction. Major casualties at a music concert. Hamas was barbaric in its methods. No distinction between civilians and military personnel. Indiscriminate killing of women and children. Rape and sexual assault as a tool of war. Decapitations, burning people to a crisp in their own homes. It is grotesque! It is intolerable! War crimes, plain and simple. It also presents the most volatile and unpredictable political, security and strategic challenge the world has faced in a long time. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a walk in the park compared the political damage of a wider Middle East war. All hands must be on deck –smart and wise people must rise to the occasion here.
Here are strength my predictions on where this will go –brace yourself –none of the scenarios are pretty.
The civilized world will react with horror. It is already started to happen. American leadership is foursquare behind Israel. Biden gave the best speech of his Presidency (a low bar) which clearly articulated the stakes – we stand with Israel – Hamas is now an existential threat to Israel – Hamas must go! The United States will provide military, intelligence, diplomatic and moral support to Israel and we explicitly acknowledge the legitimacy of their mission – the total destruction and elimination of Hamas in Gaza. The European Union and its major powers, Germany, France, Italy, the Scandinavian countries, will join the chorus. The United Kingdom will enthusiastically support the Israelis. The West, and kindred democratic nations in the east, Japan, Australia, New Zealand will stand firm and stand together. In the immediate aftermath, congenital neutrals like Brazil, South Africa and India will maintain a very low profile. Russia and China will play their cards close to the vest, but strident criticisms of Israel will be deferred in the near term. However, it is the midterm and long term I worry about! Why?
The Israeli war cabinet and military leadership will respond in full! They are humiliated by their gross intelligence failure and their incompetence in failing to save more civilians once the attacks were in progress. They feel guilty – they failed in their primary duty to the state - securing the borders. In short, their attitude will be in "it is us versus them" – “play time is over.” They will display massive force in Gaza - air, sea and land. They will also send an unvarnished message to the other bad actors in the neighborhood. Iran generally, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Islamic militants in Iraq, armed militias in the West Bank. The strategy is clear – we will destroy you and don't think you get to "outcry” us. We will be merciless! We are enraged! Justice will be done! The gloves are off!
The third thing that I guarantee will occur in real time is that the narrative will change very quickly. The air war has started and a land war in tight urban quarters will follow. Civilians will die in large numbers. Women and children will be killed. The blockade will result in food and water shortages, power will be lost and the healthcare system in Gaza will collapse. Infrastructure will be destroyed from the air. Gaza civilians will be internally displaced in large numbers. It will be a humanitarian disaster –and pictures and videos of the dead and injured will be distributed widely in social and public media. In short order, the 1400 massacred civilians and 200+ hostages will fade into the background. The focus of the international community will change to whether Israel is following the Laws of War and committing war crimes in Gaza. Human rights organizations will document the rapidly declining humanitarian situation on the ground. The United Nations, which has a major presence in Gaza will quickly become very queasy. The EU will begin to fracture and Biden will begin to feel pressure worldwide. Interestingly, the left-wing of his party is already expressing discomfort with his unapologetic support of the Israeli government. The Arab states were revert to historical form and blast Israel. The “neutrals” will begin to express outrage and Russia and China will look for opportunities to exploit the situation strategically. 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, dead Palestinians, many civilian women and children will create a new reality from a political and strategic vantage point.
It will be bad – and the endgame escapes me at this moment. Pray for prudence, but do not hold your breath. More to come; I intend to monitor the situation closely and post on a regular basis. This is ultra important.
