The Biden-Trump Debate
It was clear from the outset that the 2024 Presidential Election would be a a painful and nasty exercise. Polarisation is incredibly high and the quality of the national political discourse is disturbingly low. Truly dispiriting! My overwhelming instinct was to ignore the entire circus, but a lifelong commitment to good citizenship dictated that I remain attentive to the process. I promised to monitor key events without saturating the digital space with instant vacuous Twitter style analysis. Consistent with that promise, I watched the Republican primary debates and Biden’s State of the Union address and shared my observations with this audience. We have now witnessed the most recent seminal moment in the campaign- the CNN hosted debate between President Biden and former President Trump. Party primary voters, in an exercise of popular wisdom, decide a rematch between the 2020 candidates is just what the country needs. Unfortunate in the extreme, but reality rules. Let’s evaluate the debate and assess its potential impact on the outcome.
Preliminary disclosures: Donald Trump is a narcissistic sociopath and is completely unfit to serve in the Oval Office. He is wildly unqualified based on his temperament, character and record. He was a disastrous President from 2017-2021. He engaged in an effort to unconstitutionally remain in power, is a convicted felon and has three pending criminal cases in federal and state courts. There is no conceivable set of circumstances where I could vote for him. Second, I respect President Biden, believe he is a decent human being and has a reasonably good record as President. Third, I did NOT want President Biden to run for re-election. Plainly put, he would be 86 years old at the end of a second term. Objectively, I think anyone that elderly is too OLD to handle the overwhelming responsibilities of the Presidency. Subjectively, President Biden was already manifesting the signs of decline associated with the aging process. He is much diminished from 4 years ago and a radically different figure than the VP candidate we saw in 2008 and 2012. His diction is poor- his gait is rigid and his overall appearance projects a lack of focus. I was less enamoured of his State of the Union speech than most pundits. He was OK. I believe the better course was for him to announce in mid 2023 that he was not running for reelection and that he was eager to turn the keys over to a new and promising cadre of Dem leaders. He could take a bow and rest on his laurels. He had saved the nation from a second Trump term, normalised our relationship with the rest of the world and passed historic bi-partisan legislation on infrastructure, climate and energy. Retire with grace and accept the thanks of a grateful nation. A solid spot on the history books guaranteed and a healthy approval rating post-presidency. All the polling confirmed that the vast majority of the population thought he was too old to run again. Alas, President Biden reached a different conclusion. He sees himself as indispensable, clears the field and retains his role as the party standard bearer. I was disappointed in his decision.
I was correct and President Biden was wrong. The debate confirmed that he does not possess the capacity to run for re-election. We started the year with the premise that that the only Republican Biden could beat is Trump. Now we have situation where the only Democrat Trump can beat is Biden. The debate performance was that bad! You choose your description - a disaster, a catastrophe, and embarrassment, a disgrace.
Where do I begin? President Biden’s appearance was POOR. He was pasty, pale and drawn. His facial expressions alternated between dazed and frozen. His eyes were darting and squinty and he was slack jawed for long periods. His mouth was open and agape- usually when listening to Trump’s answers. He looked ANCIENT. His voice was hoarse, raspy, low, weak, hollow- barely audible at key moments. His actual answers were incoherent, unintelligible, rambling, vague and meandering. He confused numbers multiple times, lost his train of thought mid answer and had numerous non sequiturs. He flubbed softball questions and appeared totally at sea. A complete brain freeze. He failed to rebut Trump’s most hyperbolic and outrageous statements. A good counter-puncher would have annihilated Trump. The performance is not susceptible to the wiles of men the most creative spin doctor. Comparing this effort to Ford-Carter, Reagan-Mondale, Bush-Kerry and Obama-Romney- all situations where an incumbent underperformed at the first debate is nonsense. Those individuals, to paraphrase Ross Douhat, lost those debates on points. This was self inflicted knockout!
Trump won the debate, although the outcome had little to do with his own performance. The debacle of a struggling Biden is the WHOLE story here. Trump was effective in attacking Biden’s record on inflation, the border crisis and the Afghan withdrawal fiasco. The balance of his answers were histrionic recitations of complete falsehoods or half truths. He is a pathological liar or is totally self delusional. However, he controlled his worst instincts better than usual and retained a good physical presence throughout the proceeding. He did not appear OLD. After the first debate in 2020 there was a strong argument he should be institutionalised. Now, house arrest is probably the appropriate remedy. I suspect the national and swing state polls will show his lead has grown and is now beyond the margin of error.
Many have expressed feelings of sadness and sorrow in reaction to Biden’s public collapse. So sad to see a good man diminished! My judgment is harsher and more critical. He chose to run again based on vanity, hubris and pride. He refused to look in the mirror. It was a disservice to his party and the country. What to do now? I am very skeptical that he will step away from the nomination. Legions of supporters, including the Editorial Page of the New York Times have called for him to end his campaign and allow an open convention. They have 2 months to get organised. I think such a move would be out of character for the President. He stills overestimates his ability. He will need to reverse the perception of approaching senility now- with a great convention speech and a dynamic performance at a second debate. Unfortunately, recovery, reinvention and revitalization are rare at the age of 82. Don’t look now, but things could get worse.
