Russia, Ukraine and Trump: The Emperor Has No Clothes
I promised to defer instant analysis of the Trump administration. I pledged to a cooling off period that would last until April 15. Do not let him suck all the oxygen out of the room or disturb your fundamental well being. Don’t overreact to his never ending psychological need for attention. Take a breath and hold it for a couple of months. Then do a rigorous analysis of the carnage, the carnival or the circus- choose your own terminology. I will maintain this commitment despite of barrage of orders and pronouncements and hold my fire until April when we should have greater clarity on the nature of the changes and what initiatives will have staying power and which will fade away. This pledge applies to domestic policy only. The rapid self induced collapse of Pax Americana and the impending betrayal of Ukraine and the western values and interests associated with our historical policies demands immediate comment. The country can survive Trump, but will the world order?
Let me give you some context on my thinking by sharing some relevant quotations.
“A naive and uninformed person who can be manipulated to advance a dangerous cause or political agenda.”
“A foolish person who can be taken advantage of for political purposes.”
“A person who does not realise they are being manipulated by other leaders for unsavoury political purposes.”
"A silly person with no knowledge of history, who buys into an adversary’s agenda and becomes an unwitting agent for a foreign power.”
These are alternative definitions- very thematic, of a particular phenomena and personality type, “THE USEFUL IDIOT.” The term was purportedly originally employed by Lenin when describing Westerners, sometimes journalists, sometimes businessman, who provided verbal, moral and political cover for the brutalities inflicted by the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia. It pains me to say it, but the term aptly describes the current occupant of the White House considering his rhetoric and actions regarding the current Ukraine-Russia war. Or he may know exactly what he is doing and is intentionally creating an environment where autocrats will flourish and western values and principles will be crushed by sheer power politics. Under either explanation, the drastic policy reversals on Ukraine are grotesque, shameful and shameless. A dramatic confirmation of my continuing hypothesis, first expressed in 2015, that Donald J Trump is “unfit” and “unqualified” to hold our nation’s most sacred and important public office. But, you say- Bill how could you be so harsh- so disrespectful- the man just wants to end a war and bring peace. Well, examine the record. Red lights are flashing everywhere. To quote an English statesman at the outset of WWI, “The Lights Are Going Off All Over Europe and Will Not Come Back On In Our Lifetime.”
President Trump has outlined a plan that would essentially be a Ukrainian “surrender” and a Putin victory. The record of events here is crystal clear. Russian invaded Ukraine in February of 2022. It was an unprovoked attack and a clear violation of existing agreements (Budapest Memorandum of 1994) and international law. Putin then prosecuted the war in a manner that violated every “Law of War” imaginable. He kidnapped children, displaced millions, tortured and murdered prisoners of war and regularly targeted civilians and non military infrastructure. The West, led by the United States and strongly supported by Europe has supported Ukraine with military and non military assistance the past three years. US grants are at 1 billion and the Europeans have donated or loaned 1.2 billion. Ukraine has fought courageously, is still afloat and is now engaged in a war of attrition with Russian troops. Russia occupies 20 percent of Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands have been killed and wounded. It is brutal- awful really. An effort to end this carnage is praiseworthy but how it is done and the nature of the term will matter greatly if any form of justice is to be realised here. Ukraine must survive as an independent state and have confidence they will remain that way going forward forward. Putin must be denied a victory from his aggression. He can’t be rewarded. This means he must come to accept with an independent Ukraine aligned with Europe politically. He will keep territory in Eastern Ukraine as well as Crimea. A peace based on western strength, stamina and wise use of our leverage is possible, but it will require patience, discipline and fortitude. Weakness, caprice and unseemly pressure on the attacked party- Ukraine- is not the policy of a legitimate world power. Russia is hurting from this conflict and you need to exploit that weakness in any negotiation.
In the face of this undisputed history, Trump unilaterally declares that Ukraine “started” the war. He asserts that Zelensky, who has been courageous and fearless, is a “dictator” with no legitimacy. He then demands that Ukraine give the United States future control of Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits as repayment for the assistance provided the last 3 years by the Biden Administration. Now, the United States votes against a resolution at the United Nations because the language identifies Russia as the aggressor. The United States is now unwilling to condemn the invasion in any public forum. The Trump policy is a war on truth itself. Truly Orwellian. Another Trump envoy says Russia was forced to invade Ukraine because of fears that Ukraine would be admitted to NATO. A Putin talking point - and total nonsense. NATO was not close to admitting Ukraine and if Putin really feared NATO he would not have initiated a war which resulted in NATO adding Finland and Sweden and adding 800 miles to Russian borders with NATO countries. It isn’t about NATO- Putin wants Ukraine back in the Russian Federation people! USEFUL IDIOTS! Trump then says he wants to negotiate but his Secretary of Defense- Pete (I cannot believe he was confirmed) Hegseth immediately concedes all the fundamental negotiating points before any talks actually commence; he takes NATO membership off the table and states the USA will not provide any security guarantees to Ukraine post agreement. Pete may be a warrior, but he disarmed without a peep! Trump said he could settle the conflict in one day. We now understand what he meant- he will coerce Ukraine to accept the unacceptable by threatening the elimination of aid and will demand ZERO of Putin. The Art of the Deal gone haywire!
The fascination and admiration of Putin remains a puzzle. Let me quote from another American leader who I think most accurately describes Putin as an international player. Putin is a “war criminal”, a “butcher”, and a “bloodthirsty Monster.” Guess who- the current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in 2022-2024. Rubio was right then and many other senior Republican leaders know this is a politically crazy and morally abominable policy. Unfortunately, that group of leaders, in the face of elf Trump’s popularity have put their “MANHOOD IN A BOX.” Kara Swisher, a columnist and podcaster put it more succinctly, “DICKS IN A BOX” and a “VERY SMALL BOX INDEED.”
Trump’s policy is an abandonment of the US commitment to an international order based on “rules” and “rights.” It is a “sellout” of Ukraine and a “shakedown” of Ukraine. Basically the components of a “protection racket.” This is the best the “indispensable nation” can do? Putin as a partner is inconceivable. He poisons political opponents and bombs nurseries and orphanages intentionally. Shouldn’t we be aligned with the proponents of political liberty and freedom and the victims of these attacks? It is Kafkaesque- Alice in Wonderland stuff! Trump must feel a kinship with Putin because both believe the world belong to the strong and the weak must bend the knee. Putin gets Ukraine, China gets Taiwan, the US gets Greenland and Panama. Sphere of influence dynamic and the law of the jungle. Finally, accelerating the awful rhetoric, Trump said Russia should be immediately reinstated to the G7 group. You have no moral compass if you are so unfazed by bad behaviour that you reward them for it.
Ultimately, a good faith negotiation is necessary. It is unlikely Ukraine will develop the capacity to recapture its lost territory. The human cost and the economic damage is very high. Concessions will be necessary but they must be mutual. Ukraine status as an independent and sovereign nation must be preserved and this requires security guarantees that will make clear to Russia there is no upside in restarting the war two years from now. Ukraine should continue economic integration with the west and join the European Union. Ukraine must develop its own arms industry and Europe in the near term must commit to continued support. The United States should remain engaged and partner with Ukraine- heck a joint effort to explore and commercialise the rare mineral deposits may make sense in peacetime. Selling out Ukraine and embarking on some partnership with a criminal regime in Moscow is not an option. What would Reagan say? What would Bush say? What does Romney say? What would every American President since WWII say? We all know the answer!
The current Trump strategy is stupid and insane. Perhaps, he will modify his approach. Pax American did succeed. Our alliances in Europe and Asia have kept the peace, fostered economic prosperity and gradually created a more democratic and humane world. Not perfect, but good. We have prospered and benefited enormously. We run most of these multilateral institutions. We have incredible cultural influence. A peaceful and unified Europe is a great market for our products and financial services. The Trumpian idea, repeated constantly, that the current system is a “ripoff” of the United States by our allies; Canada, Mexico, Europe, Japan, South Korea etc is MADNESS. Making adversaries of our allies is also a crazy idea if you hope to pushback against China’s ambitions. We need to be united with Europe on Chinese related issues like export controls and tariffs. Otherwise, the Chinese will just pick off the Europeans nations one by one. They will be ripe for the picking if they feel the US has abandoned them. An effective global China strategy is totally undermined by ridiculous sniping at allies. It is goofy. Putin hates the European Union and would love if Trump forces a US-Europe divorce. If he fears NATO, he must love the idea that Trump will drop out of the alliance. Again, he is giving them what they have always wanted and getting ZERO in return. Truly, a catastrophic course. Hopefully, wiser heads will disabuse Trump of his fantasies, but I am not confident. This is not the same crew as the first term I do confess to loving one idea- relocating 2 million Palestinians from the Gaza strip and creating Gaza Lago. Brilliant- only a gifted statesman could have come up with that idea.
Wake up AMERICA!
