Reversal of Fortune: 2024 Presidential Election

My last political posting was in early July. I have remind faithful to my commitment not to fall prey to the temptation to over-react to isolated or episodic events. Leave that to Fox/MSNBC and the political nerds in the blogosphere and podcast world. Instead, I choose to focus only on major developments that signal a potential change in the dynamics and rhythm of the campaign. The tumultuous and rapid fire events of the past 6 weeks meet that criteria. We are in a new world with a host of surprising and unexpected players moving to the forefront. The contest now present genuine drama. It no longer has the characteristics of a Catholic wake or sitting Shiva. It will be nasty- it will be brutish- it will be exhausting, but it is also poised to produce fireworks and memories.

As someone famous once said, “What the hell just happened?” On July 6, President Biden was dutifully attempting to recover from his dismal performance at the June 27 debate. I labeled it “the senility denial tour.” It was in the process of failing in a big way. Biden’s approval rating was 38% and 80% of his own party wanted him to step down. Trump was riding high with a 4-5 point lead in the national polls and advantages outside the margin of error in all the battleground states. The wind was at his back. Biden was political TOAST! His ability to recover was extremely limited since his fundamental weaknesses- age, mental acuity and stamina would not improve over time. He would just get older every day. He basically would need to rely on self destructive behaviour by Trump. Trump could coast through his typical rallies and stay focused on the three policy “I’s” cutting in his favour. Inflation (the economy), Immigration (the border) and instability (foreign wars in Mideast and Ukraine.) The narrative was set and would be difficult to dislodge.

What followed was shocking and we are now in different place. In rapid order, consider the following events flashing before us in staccato like fashion. First, a classic loner loser attempts to assassinate Trump. His favorability ratings went up because he survived and had the presence of mind to exhort his supporters to “keep fighting.” Made for TV drama. His lead increased. The Republican convention was a solid show- displaying unity, confidence an a sense of momentum. Trump doubled down on MAGA by selecting 39 yer old JD Vance as his VP running mate. Vance has a short and unusual bio- from Hillbilly Elegy to private equity, but his main qualification is that he is a good buddy of Donald Trump Jr! Then President Biden, after weeks of pressure from Democratic congressional leaders, donors and the media abruptly withdrew form the race. Oxygen returned to the Democratic isolation chamber. Vice President Harris quickly consolidated the entire party behind her candidacy. Amazing really- many prognosticators had forecast a mini primary or open convention. She then hit the road, filled arenas in three major cities, was coherent and credible and the polls tightened rather dramatically. She ran a disciplined VP vetting process, selected Tim Walz. A surprising choice, but a pleasant one out of the gate. A four day extravaganza of joy and enthusiasm followed at the DNC in Chicago. A home run! Harris gave a very good address. The big hitters came through: Michelle Obama, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hilary Clinton, Oprah Winfrey, Bernie Sanders, Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, Pete Buttigieg, Doug Emhoff, Maya Harris Gretchen Whitmer, Elizabeth Warren. A wave of disaffected Republicans filled out the mosaic. Patriotism, football and balloons were back! The wave of unity, combined with a striking ability to frame the incumbent VP as the “change” candidate was politically impressive. The polls reflect the change in the narrative. Ms Harris saw her approval rating jump from 36 to 50%. She now leads the national polling by three points and ALL the battleground states are “toss ups.” The reality is that both parties think they can win and both parties know they can lose. Enjoy the ride.

Some bullet point observations on the features players here and an examination of the general state of the race.

First, President Biden. To quote every speaker at the DNC- Thank you for your service, leadership and distinguished career. AND A DOUBLE THANK YOU for doing the right thing and terminating your re-election effort. Many are “saddened" by the underlying pathos surrounding his departure. I am not. He was a solid President, passed major legislation (CHIPS and Infrastructure) and stabilised our alliances. However, the original intent in 2020 was for him to be a “bridge” President. He should have announced a decision not to run in the summer of 2023 and opened the door to a spirited primary between a new generation of candidates. The Dems have a good bench and the process would have produced a battle tested candidate for the general election. It may have been Vice President Harris- it may have been someone else. Mr Biden went off script. For reasons of vanity, he decided he was indispensable- the only candidate who could beat Trump and the only Democrat who could govern the country. Certainly, I detected a sense of entitlement after a 50 year career in the trenches. There was glaring lack of self awareness here. He ignored polls going back to 2023 consistently showing that 70 of Democrats wanted him NOT to run in 2024. His inner circle, including his rather tribal family, was not helpful. The catastrophic debate performance was the exclamation point, but the signs of physical and mental diminishment were evident to even casual observers. Jesus, they wouldn’t even let him do the Super Bowl interview! The predicament the Democrats found themselves in on July 6 was caused by President Biden’s hubris and stubbornness and the movement to remove him from the ticket was not bad form- it was good citizenship and a political necessity. He should focus on foreign policy the next 6 months-best to him and his family!

Second, Donald Trump. A more complete analysis of Mr Trump and his movement will come in the next 30 days. Today, let’s just focus on his current political standing. His strength is that he has a rock solid base who will follow him through thick and thin. Chaos and lunacy will not move them- they will be there for Trump in the end. Therefore, he has a high floor- probably mid 40's. His approval ratings are higher today than in 2020. The assassination attempt created a natural sympathy and perhaps softened general attitudes toward him. He is formidable in a frightening sort of way. A dangerously effective populist. If he is smart, a HUGE if, he should focus his campaign resources on the key battleground states and just hammer away of cost of living and illegal immigrants. Avoid nasty and histrionic attacks on Ms Harris. There are chinks in the armor. Views of him are pretty embedded and it is hard to portray him as a change candidate. He is the ultimate known quantity. He may have high floor, but he has a low ceiling. I doubt 50% of the national vote is possible. Also, recent performances are concerning. He is old and has clearly lost something off his spitball. The final 60 minutes of his acceptance speech at the RNC was truly awful-ugly in tone, detached from reality and dystopian in its vision for the country. The debate matchup with Ms Harris will be good television. She is a good counter puncher as a former prosecutor and I believe he is capable of losing his cool again- remember 2020! The Vance pick will have no impact. The RFK Jr endorsement - MEH!

A quick postscript on Trump and the convention. The traditional Republican Party has left the building. The DNC had speakers from party leadership going back to JFK. All lined up enthusiastically behind Harris. The continuity and loyalty is noteworthy. There is network built on long relationships. At the RNC, heirs of Reagan, Bush, and McCain were intentionally absent. Heck, Mitt Romney voted to convict the candidate at two separate impeachment proceedings. There is no Republican legacy or connection with the past- only blind loyalty to Trump today. They ended up with Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump appearing in prime time. Who said that progress is inevitable in the human experiment?

Now, the big enchilada. Where did the Kamala Harris we have been seeing since mid July come from? Is she a product of artificial intelligence? Let’s look at the tape. In mid July her approval rating was 36%, actually lower than President Biden. In some quarters, her lack of popularity was a security blanket for him because an outstanding default replacement for him did not seem to be on the horizon. She ran an aggressively unsuccessful Presidential campaign in 2020 and did not even survive until the Iowa caucuses. She made no impression and had no signature message. As Vice President, she has been low key to the point of invisibility. She experienced major staff turnovers, was mediocre in public interviews, and there were constant rumours that she was a “difficult” boss. She was “border czar” during years of record border crossings. She was undoubtedly attractive, but was burdened by accompanying misogynistic whispers that she was a “lightweight” to an “empty suit.” If there had been an open primary, she would have been challenged by a host of contenders confident they could beat her. There was nothing inevitable in the tea leafs about Kamala Harris as the Presidential nominee.

Confronting that public perception and reality, she surprised everyone, including me. She was politically deft and skilled in consolidating the nomination quickly. She worked the phones. She communicated effectively. She hit the ground running and displayed a professional and polished presence at the rallies. She nailed the landing at the DNC- with a well orchestrated and thematic program and a very good speech. The VP vetting and introduction was smooth. Frankly, the rollout was flawless. Her convention speech was short on specific policies and long on personal bio and values. Good call. The big party tent and the modern and multi-ethnic family was expertly connected to American values like patriotism and freedom. She reminded everyone she was a tough prosecutor who went after sexual predators and human traffickers at the border. She can win! The party is unified and more importantly, enthusiastic. The war chest is full. The spectre of another Trump term is the ultimate motivational tool. Harris can re-energize the Obama coalition. The gender cap is shocking- she leads Trump among women 61-39 and Trump leads among men 57-43. The numbers are there to prevail if they turnout the vote. She need to avoid the Trump traps. He will hammer her as California leftie socialist. She needs to avoid what happened to Dukakis against Bush where he was successfully depicted as weak on crime and national defense. She should run to the center on everything. Finally, he will just say she is unfit and dumb. Easy to handle that- just be smart, articulate and poised in your public appearances. I do think her biggest challenge is to establish a sense of gravitas. Is she up to the 3:00 am crisis call? The result here won’t be driven by specific politics, but a gut feeling among voters that she has the serious chops to handle this extraordinary difficult job. She remains somewhat of a blank slate with the broader electorate. She needs to define herself and not let Trump define her. She is off to a good start but we have 70 days to go! It is a classic “ too close to call” electoral map and I expect it will stay that way through election day.

Finally, a personal anecdote involving the Harris family. In 2016 we were supporting Hilary Clinton and Maya Harris (Kamala’s sister) was her Chief Domestic Policy Advisor. The campaign asked us if Maya could stay with us during an upcoming campaign and policy visit to Chicago. We agreed. After a long day of meetings, Ms Harris arrived at our home at 9:00 pm. We set her up in our guest room, shared a lite bite and sat down in our living room to chat. We served Dona Amalia Gran Corte, our blend from Uno Valley. Maya happily embraced the wine and the conversation. Amalia made it to midnight- Maya and I conversed until 1:30 am. My report- she was GREAT. Smart, funny, normal and a bit of prodigy. She had been the youngest law school Dean in the country. She had great taste. She laughed at my jokes. A delightful four hours with a very impressive person. This gives me comfort as her sister seeks the top job. They are clearly close and Maya’s character is a character reference for Kamala in my book.