Republican Debate #1
Photo from NPR
Our great national nightmare has begun – a 16 month exercise in self-inflicted pain – the 2024 Presidential campaign. A global superpower and the world’s leading democracy embarks on a rational, intelligent and measured debate on the future of our country and the world. NOT! Instead, we face a circus with pre-programmed soundbites, non-debates and a barrage of negative advertising. A media carnival featuring “Talking Heads” and Super PAC driven messaging has officially commenced with the first Republican Party presidential debate. Perhaps, it would be wise to ignore the upcoming political show and instead focus on human excellence in other areas, eg; Sports, science, the arts, literature, music – there are many narratives that will genuinely inspire us. But no, as a good citizen we must do our duty, listen to our aspiring leaders and ultimately vote our conscience. Therefore I will volunteer my observations on the campaign. It will not rival Theodore White’s 1960 classic "The Making of the President" but I will seek to capture the key moments. Please maintain a sense of skepticism and irony throughout the proceedings. Trust me, we will need these qualities to retain our sanity.
Let's go to the tape! First, a preliminary qualifier is necessary. My views of the Republican slugfest will be distorted, perhaps fatally, by my own philosophical lens. I am puzzled and confused by the current state of the Republican Party. I deeply respect many former Republican political leaders and I've actually cast my ballot on that voting line on several occasions. However, the landscape has dramatically shifted since 2015 and my intellectual and emotional range is unable to comprehend the rise and subsequent worship of Donald Trump. Therefore, my insights will probably not reflect the attitudes of the majority of Republican voters. I will save my analysis of Mr. Trump's character and political record for another time, but the audience should recognise at the outset that I am a proud and permanent “Never Trumper." I am pleased he chose not to participate in the first debate. He definitely sucks oxygen out of a room and his absence allowed eight other candidates to introduce themselves without his rude interruptions.
Let me share an initial comment on the media host. Fox had a generally good night. They attracted 12 million viewers. The moderators were straight forward and made a good faith effort to manage unruly MAGA elements in the crowd. Production values were high. Slick graphics, crisp lighting and a user friendly stage setting. They clearly have assets remaining after paying the Dominion defamation case settlement! Time was allocated fairly among the candidates. Red ties appear to be mandatory! The candidates looked vigorous and healthy with the exception of Asa Hutchinson who bore a striking resemblance to the Ghost of Christmas Past. Overall, it was an entertaining program.
Some general thematic observations before commenting on the performance of individual candidates. First, who are some of these people and why are they running for President of the United States? The party needs to quickly tighten its debate eligibility criteria. Second, whatever happened to the "Morning in America,” Reagan Revolution Republican Party. You remember them; optimistic, sunny patriotic, confident, the party that believed the United States was the “indispensable nation", a "City on a Hill”, a country with a bright future. That message, along with Elvis, has left the building. Instead, with few exceptions, we hear of decline, grievance, darkness, a dystopian future –delivered in angry, nasty and punitive tones. Clearly they do not like or respect many of their fellow citizens. There is no evidence of embracing a big tent strategy and very little rhetoric that would appeal to a constituency beyond a narrow, if vocal and motivated, primary voter base. Also, several of the candidates aspire to be “Mini Trumps" or “New Trumps,” both in policy and style. Won't voters just stick with the original version? Also, why are most of these people running against Trump if they admire him, refuse to criticize him and are openly stating they will support him if he wins the nomination? This group is not leading a call to arms for a meaningful change in the direction of the party. They are a very status quo group which probably explains why Trump has an enormous lead in the polling. Let's examine the candidates.
1) Doug Burgum: We were advised that he is the Governor of North Dakota which was probably a news flash for all 12 million viewers. He was born and raised in a town of 300 people and he believes that is a good thing. He doesn't like China which is a nation of 1 billion people – not at all! He hurt his leg in an accident before the debate. I wish him health and happiness. Zero impact and zero chance.
2) Asa Hutchinson; Very pale former governor of Arkansas. One President from Arkansas in my lifetime is enough for me. He will not support Trump for President because Trump is a very bad man. As noted above, not a winning argument with this crowd. Asa doubled down on his losing message by reminding us that he worked in the Bush Administration as Director of the DEA. MAGA hates all federal law-enforcement and is certainly wondering why Mr. Hutchison did not invade Mexico when he ran DEA. Bye Bye Asa!
3) Tim Scott; Senator from South Carolina. Born black and poor. Loves America because it afforded him the opportunity to gain wealth and become a United States Senator. The debate pundits advised that he has a positive attitude, is likable and has an optimistic vision for future. I hope so but I did not see it. He was generally invisible, quoted from his stump speech and clearly does not like the Department of Justice. His best case is he was inoffensive. He will be on the shortlist for Vice President. He does need to be better in the next debate. If he is the future of the party, he should strive to give answers that we will remember more than one minute after he gives them. Not a good night for Mr. Scott.
4) Mike Pence; Former Governor of Indiana and Donald Trump's Vice President. He is very proud that he upheld his clear and unequivocal constitutional duty on January 6, 2021. Actually, a very low bar, but it was revealing that several of the candidates had to be pushed to agree that Mr. Pence had acted properly in the face of a coup. Unfortunately, MAGA views him as a traitor to Trump and that reality eviscerates his candidacy. Otherwise, he had a good debate. He has gravitas, speaks in measured tones and is a good counterpuncher. He was effective in both Vice Presidential debates - against Tim Kaine in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2020. He was aggressive in this debate and ended up with the most live camera time. He defended a traditional Republican message of low taxes, limited regulation, social conservatism and a strong national defense. His downside is that his piety can be irritating and narcissistic. He appears to have God on speed dial and sincerely believes that Jesus would vote for him. The bottom line is the Republican Party is now a Trump cult and Mike Pence has forfeited his membership. Therefore, an early exit for him!
5) Chris Christie; Former Governor in New Jersey. Very large man explicitly basing his campaign on the rejection of Donald Trump. He aggressively and effectively attacks Trump’s character, conduct and record. He is an effective communicator and an instinctive debater, but Trump's lack of participation hurt Christie the most. He needed a foil to land punches. Instead he had to settle for Vivek Ramaswamy, a poor substitute. Overall, he was reasonable on issues, if surprisingly low-key. He needs to be at the center of the action and this format did not afford him that opportunity. Overall a disappointing night. The anti-Trump lane is filled with potholes with this Republican primary electorate. Mr. Christie as well positioned to be a contributor, or even host,of a network talk show. Good luck to him. He will not be the Republican Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee in 2024.
6) Vivek Ramaswamy; A bio-pharma tech fellow. Very wealthy and very young. Good buddy of JD Vance, Peter Thiel and Leonard Leo, the powerhouse behind the Federalist Society. An elitist running against the elites. Believes Donald Trump is the greatest President of the 21st-century which begs the question of why Vivek is running against him. On substance, in addition to being grievously wrong in his judgment on Trump, he is wrong on everything else. Climate change is a hoax, he would cut off Ukraine aid and cede it to Putin, would kiss Taiwan goodbye once we developed our own semiconductor capacity and would radically reduce military aid to Israel. He would eliminate the Department of Justice, the FBI, the IRS, the Department of Education and basically the entire federal government. He will militarize the southern border. His strength is that he says all these crazy things with confidence, possessing a smooth and glib manner reminiscent of Roman in “Succession” or the young traders in “Billions”. He would be a great host of a Fox crossfire type show. His combination of modern bullet like communication mode and outrageous and provocative policy positions probably means he “won” the debate. I question whether he will wear well with voters, particularly females. He will survive the first cut and other candidates are clearly wary of his appeal which is why they focused most of their attacks on him. He may be an heir to Trump’s MAGA base so God bless us. I do question how and why our society is producing people like Vivek on a regular basis is discouraging.
7) Nikki Haley; “In her prime female”, former popular Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the United Nations. Her husband has served two deployment overseas. She is attractive and articulate with no obvious pathologies. By any objective standard, she was very good at the debate. She humiliated Ramaswamy for his foreign policy ignorance. She attempted to lower the voices and find consensus and common ground on abortion. She was expert on the actual legislative process which is the heart of government. She criticized Republican hypocrisy on spending and earmarks. She forcibly reminded the audience that Trump is the most unpopular politician in America and that he raise the national debt by $8 trillion dollars. She has actually thought about how the Republicans can create a winning coalition at the Presidential level. Remember, Republicans have only won the popular vote one since 1988 – George Bush over John Kerry narrowly in 2004. Republicans need to learn the politics is about addition, not subtraction. Ideally, she will rise in the polls and becomes Trumps primary challenger. Someone needs to get him one on one to have any chance to beat him in the Republican primaries. At minimum, Mrs. Haley is on the list for VP. Good luck to her.
8) Ron DeSantis; Governor of Florida. Anointed by pundits and the elite donor class as the primary Trump alternative or heir apparent. He is second in the early polling, although 40 points behind Trump. He was awarded the center spot on the debate stage . This was a good opportunity for him to make his case. Well, DeSantis was terrible. I was tempted to avoid hyperbole and just say that he was unremarkable or low-key, but why publish a blog if you cannot be transparent and honest with your readers. First, style. He's a robot. He is a stiff. He is a bore. He has no juice. He has no charisma. He's not likable. He has a creepy smile. He has no discernible sense of humor. He's not comfortable in his own skin. He speaks in rehearsed sound bites with no spontaneity. Perhaps, his substance is so compelling that he can overcome the stylistic deficiencies. Alas NO. He simply refused to answer any questions that did not conform to his script. He ignored questions on climate change, gun control and Ukraine. Instead he served us non sequiturs or blatant dog whistles on Hunter Biden, Anthony Fauci and any human being seeking asylum at our southern border. He will invade Mexico and leave all drug-related Mexican individuals "Stone Cold Dead”.
Ultimately, he stayed out of the fray and the other candidates ignored him - very odd choice if they truly view him as their main competitor in the non Trump tier. He lives to see another day but a few more of these disastrous sessions and his numbers will crater and his donors will abandon him. He can then return to Florida and save it from the LGBT and Transgender invading hordes. He can renew his attacks on Disney and ensure the Florida educational system will spare students any classes referencing 250 years of slavery and 75 years of Jim Crow laws in the south. He is not a credible candidate.
