Israel, Hamas and the World: Part 4

Photo by Emad El Byed on Unsplash

Today is the six month anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel! 1200 Israeli dead and 240 taken to Gaza as hostages. The attack was brutal, focused on civilians and involved torture and sexual assault. By definition, a war crime. The immediate global reaction to the unprecedented attack was sympathy for Israel, particularly in the West. The United States, with strong leadership from President Biden, denounced the attack and acknowledged and endorsed Israel’s right to respond in full. The die was cast- Israel declared war on Hamas. The moral parameters appeared to be clear- the bad guys had been identified and the forces for civilization needed to engage and prevail. Never again!

Oh, if the world was so simple. We long for a world of black and white, easy choices and morally unambiguous results. Unsurprisingly, it was not to be. The October 7 attacks occurred in the most complicated region on the planet. Ancient hatreds, a pattern of sustained violence, the shadow of the Holocaust, unfulfilled Palestinian nationalist aspirations, big power engagement and rivalry, a history of terrorism, episodic uprisings, the Sunni-Shia Islamic divide- the sources of political discord, disunity, distrust, destruction and chaos are endless. The last six months have confirmed the nasty, brutish and ugly nature of the historical disputes. What has happened?

Broadly, old prejudices such as anti-Semitism have reared their ugly head. Tensions have grown between Israel and the United States. Israel, the victim of the original attack, is now seen as an out of control aggressor, even a global pariah. Israel has achieved significant tactical victories on the ground. It has destroyed about 70 percent of the Hamas military brigade structure. Rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel proper have essentially ceased. Hamas has limited offensive capability. Although the estimates of Hamas casualties are around 14,000, the top 4 commanders of the Hamas military remain alive, at large and active. The Israelis have systematically identified and compromised the extensive Hamas tunnel system which serve as their communication, defence and communication centres. However, again the job is incomplete- hundreds of miles of tunnels purportedly remain intact and functional. As military operations go the Israeli effort has been generally effective. They have freedom of movement in Gaza and they control the skies. If they are willing to commit to a long and painful war of attrition, the Israelis are off to a sound start. BUT! Will the tactical victories get Israel to where it want to go? What is the end game?

Employing aggressive understatement, I argue the Israeli strategic posture is “uncertain” and “cloudy.” It is a mess. What are the stated Israeli objectives? There are two; 1) The complete destruction and elimination of Hamas. Israel defines Hamas as an existential threat to Israel’s security and survival. Living with them right next door is no longer a viable option. They must be completely removed from the military and political equation in the region. 2) The safe return of the remaining hostages. Any victory requires recapturing the hostages or negotiating their release. Technically, 120-140 hostages remain in Gaza, but intelligence sources estimate a good number of them are already dead. There is an active hostage freedom movement in Israel and they have been a periodic pressure point on the Netanyahu government. However, polls indicate the Israeli public supports the military offensive in Gaza and is unwilling to support a permanent ceasefire in exchange for hostage release. The primary reality check here is the recognition that the stated objectives are extraordinarily ambitious- basically absolute victory and unconditional surrender by Hamas. How do we define the “destruction” of Hamas? The killing, capture or surrender of its top leadership? The complete elimination of all 30,000 fighters? The 100 percent destruction of the tunnel system? Eliminating Hamas leaders and members in the West Bank where they remain a major disruptive force? Assassination of the Hamas political leadership who are comfortably residing in Turkey, Dubai or the UAE? How about the new generation of Hamas loyalists created by the Israeli barrage in Gaza and the 33,000 dead? Dead parents and siblings may radicalise surviving 14-18 year old Palestinian boys in Gaza. What will be their plans for revenge? Polls show Hamas popularity is actually up in the West Bank and on the Arab Street generally. A persuasive case be made that he current Israeli objectives are unachievable or that the human and political costs Israel will incur in pursuing them is not worth the cost. Perhaps, it is time to re-assess in Tel Aviv.

The vagueness of what will be an actual Israeli victory is accompanied by the international outcry generated by the nature of the Israeli military response. We are bombarded by horrific images of complete destruction of cities, villages, hospitals, schools and mosques. The civilian death and wounded rate is HIGH. There are millions of internally displaced refugees. The complete Israeli blockade of Gaza has caused a humanitarian nightmare with reports of starvation, lack of water and no infrastructure or power. Many activists characterise the Israeli policy as collective punishment. There is no governance in Gaza, only chaos and outright destruction. It is a hellhole. Aid workers have been killed and the recent Israel attack on the Jose Andres World Food volunteers has outraged everyone. Other governments have initiated genocide proceedings against Israel in the International Court of Justice. Human Rights Watch has accused Israel of using starvation as a military tool and suggested the bombing and drone campaign has been indiscriminate and disproportionate- code words for war crimes. Israel contests these charges and assert they do not target civilians, but the ratio between civilian and military casualties is disturbing. Finally, let’s be real. There was pre-existing prejudice against Israel in many sectors of the international community. Anti-Semitism, Anti-Zionism- pick your term. Once the Israeli military went into action, it was comfortable for many to default to their historic anti-Israel comfort zone. The farther removed we are from the original barbarity of the October 7 attack, the more public “blame” has shifted to the Israelis. Many groups and countries that never accepted the legitimacy of a Jewish state in the Middle East have seen the controversy over the wisdom of Israels policies in Gaza as an opportunity to revive the Palestinian mantra of a nation from “River To Sea”- (The Jordan to the Mediterranean). There is significant support for the Palestinians in Europe and American college campuses have become a centre of anti Israeli-rhetoric. It is not my nature to be alarmist but the number of self described progressives who seem comfortable with bad actors like Hamas and Hezbollah is sobering. Israel was attacked by “bad” people who employed hellish methods in delivering the most severe attack on Jews since the Holocaust. Inexplicably, but perhaps predictably the Netanyahu government is losing the public relations war with these same people! Israel cannot ignore its international standing- its goal is to be a normal country. Again, a hard nosed examination of the best way forward from here is appropriate.

Israel’s fundamental strategic premise has always been to defend the homeland, preserve its freedom of action but NEVER alienate the United States of America. The US is Israels’ security blanket and the main supplier of its military hardware. They are intelligence partners. The US is Israel’s prime defender at international institutions, including the UN. There has been a special connection between the two countries since President Truman recognised the new state of Israel in 1948. It has been bumpy at times and Reagan, Bush 1 and Obama all had disagreements with the Israeli government but the core of the relationship has remained strong. We have similar values driven by our Judaeo-Christian religious and ethical traditions. We are allies. Biden is very pro Israel. However, the Gaza operation is putting a significant strain on the relationship. The US has been steadfast in supporting Israel’s right to respond and accepts the destruction of Hamas as a viable player as a legitimate political goal. We have vetoed UN resolutions calling for a complete ceasefire. The United States differs with Israel on where to go from here; First, humanitarian aid must be priority and Israel needs to allow more aid into Gaza. The US insists that Israel present a coherent relocation plan for the million plus refugees in Raffah before proceeding with a major military operation there. The US military also believes Israel can successfully locate and eliminate the remaining Hamas military leadership thru precise special forces ops- this would greatly reduce civilian casualties. Biden has suggested future American military aid will depend on Israel compliance with our recommendations. Israel has decisions to make. They assert nothing less than the complete destruction of Hamas military capability is a victory and that means wiping out the 4 brigades in Raffah. Unfortunately, a big operation with 1 million civilians in place will generate another 20,000 deaths. I suspect Netanyahu will proceed with the big attack if his generals tell him that is the only way to guarantee Hamas defeat. I have some sympathy for the Israeli position. Why take a knee on the 20 yard line when you need a touchdown to clinch a win? Stopping now or resorting to long term special operations may allow Hamas to claim at least a partial victory. The outcome of the US-Israel debate remains uncertain. The world is watching.

The other major strategic question mark for Israel is the post war plan- or as some suggest the complete absence of one. You win- the Hamas leadership is dead- the brigades destroyed, the guns silent in Gaza. What happens next? There will be 2 million people left in Gaza- basically, poor, homeless, starving and embittered. Reconstruction cost will be in the billions. Who will be in charge of security? Does Israel stay as an occupying force? Simultaneously, there will still be 3 million very frustrated and angry Palestinians in the West Bank and 2 million Palestinians in Israel proper- most who believe they are treated as second class citizens in an apartheid like social system. The elephant in the room has always been on how do 7 million Israelis govern 7 million Palestinians when the Palestinians have no state, no pathway to one and essentially no rights under the current administration. What has happened since October 7 has reintroduced the need to seriously evaluate options. Netanyahu had a pre October 7 plan. First divide and conquer the Palestinians politically by taking advantage of the disputes between Hamas and the PLA. Basically, assert he has no one to negotiate with. He would then normalise relations with the Saudis and the Gulf States and they- in conjunction with the United States- would confront and squeeze Iran.The Palestinians would be on the back burner- bought off with economic incentives and blockaded by walls and security. His plan failed. The Palestinians are back front and centre, The Saudi normalisation and security alliance is on hold and it wont be reactivated until Israel proposes a plan to accommodate Palestinian nationalist aspirations. The Americans and Europeans want the two state solution revived with the Palestinian Authority responsible for the West Bank and Gaza with a demilitarised state. Israeli settlements in the West Bank would cease. This option would require Netanyahu to abandon his lifelong commitment to NEVER allow a Palestinian state on Israel’s borders. He is not going to change course now, particularly after Israel suffered these horrible losses. Why reward the attackers with a state? Pundits, many very knowledgeable eg Tom Friedman, continue to push this option but I don’t see it, particularly if Netanyahu remains in power. If the mayor players seriously want to revive the Oslo 2 state solution track, Bibi need to leave the building. I question where this plan is going and remind everyone that Bibi’s cabinet has members who are more conservative than he- people who want to annex the West Bank and basically want the Palestinians to self deport to other Arab countries. Basically a reverse River to Sea concept with Israelis controlling it all. This idea is crazy and will not fly with the US. What else is feasible?

The parties need to operate on dual tracks. Israel needs to execute a plan to finish Hamas- perhaps defining “finish” conservatively- killing the top leaders and no serious threat in the future. Ideally, this would be done with more consideration given to protecting Palestinian civilians and maximising the supply of humanitarian aid. We then need to brainstorm a positive governing plan. Brett Stephens proposed an “Arab Mandate” for Gaza and the West Bank. The Saudis, Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan would step up and provide economic support and governing assistance to responsible Palestinians who recognise Israel’s legitimacy. The Palestinians need to be convinced it will ultimately result in a genuine state. The US and Europe would supply security guarantees. I like the idea but fear it makes too much sense. The Arab states have never truly invested in Palestinian statehood. With proper American incentives on security and economic development perhaps they will change their tune. Israel would have to give up its messianic plan to expand to the West Bank, but they would be freed from the burden of governing people who hate them.

Finally, we need a strategy to defeat Hezbollah, the Islamic Jihad and ultimately Iran. This is where the risk of regional war is real and frightening. Bibi again raised the stakes by bombing the Iranian consulate in Damascus this week and killing 5 major Iranian generals. We await the Iranian response. The same crazies in Israel who want to annex the West Bank are calling for a major war of destruction against Hezbollah after they finish off Hamas. A regional war would necessarily involve the Americans. Let’s avoid it. The better strategy is to isolate Iran through comprehensive security structure involving the US- Israel the Saudis and the Gulf States- little help from Turkey and Egypt too. We need think strategically- stakes are so high. I am gloomy about prospects, but am congenitally an optimist!