Israel and the Mideast (Part 7)

What are the major events and benchmarks which led to the current political structure in historical Palestine? Israel became a nation state in 1948 and recently celebrated its 75th anniversary. The Palestinian Arabs are a people without a state and no current identifiable pathway to nationhood. There are 7 million Jews and 7 million Palestinians sharing this narrow footprint of land from the Jordan river to the Mediterranean. Why are the tangible results on the ground so radically different for 2 sets of people? What major decisions and choices drove the current outcome? Let’s embark on a bullet point style historical review. It is critical to master the context of the conflict before making judgements on appropriate solutions. The intractable nature of the dispute attracts many self appointed experts with no clue on how the parties actually arrived at this moment. Observers must acknowledge the drastically different narratives adopted by the Israelis and the Palestinians before wading into the “solution” terrain.

Israel is a state on a mission and with a plan. Both have been pursued with commitment and hard nosed political calculation for 125 years. Israel is a Zionist state based on Zionist principles. This is lesson Number 1. Zionism is an intellectual movement that began in the late 19th century. The concept was originally championed by Theodore Herzl and the key leaders in pursuing its goals were Chaim Weitzman and David Ben Gurion. The underlying principal was to establish a Jewish homeland in historical Palestine. A nation state with a Jewish majority populace. The premise is was based on the judgement that Jewish security, religion and culture can only survive in a Jewish state. Integration into other cultures had failed- despite some progress Jews were always treated as the “other” in European countries. They were subject to discrimination, persecution, violence and pogroms. The were confined to ghettoes and denied political and economic power. They were segregated and displaced on a regular basis. The Catholic Church challenged their legitimacy. The libelous Protocols of the Elder of Zion accused the Jews of a worldwide conspiracy to dominate the world and million of copies were printed an distributed to the general population. The United States was entertaining strict limits on Jewish emigres. Anti Semitism was practiced openly and even in polite society frequently ranged under the surface. The early Zionist leadership predicted that the Jews would be subject to even greater persecution as the modern world put the old empire system under pressure. Nationalist movements were invariably Anti Semitic, arguing the Jews would never be loyal to the state . Jews were known as “cosmopolitans” and it was not a compliment. In this environment, the Zionists presented the movement for a new Jewish state as a “survival” strategy. The Holocaust validated many of the Zionist predictions.

Why Palestine as the target area for a Jewish Homeland? The Jews have a deep historical relationship with the region. The Bible tells us of the Kingdoms of Israel and Judea. The entire Old Testament occurs in what we now know as Israel, Jordan the West Bank and Gaza. Recall the stories of Moses, King David and King Solomon. Jesus was baptized by John the Baptist in the Jordan River. Jesus, the ultimate Jew was born in Galilee and crucified in Jerusalem. Jerusalem is home of the 2 Ancient Temples! Every Jewish family at New Year, no matter where located would toast to “Next year in Jerusalem”. The historical link is undeniable, but the reality is that as Zionism gained momentum in the early 20th century, there were only 20,000 Jews living in Palestine. Expulsions and diaspora going back to Roman times had radically reduced Jewish presence in the region. They were outnumbered by Palestinian Arabs 20-1. For the Zionist idea to work, there would need to be a sustained Jewish return to the lands of Israel. The Palestinians, unimpressed by ancient historical tales viewed the land as their territory and the Jewish settlers as interlopers. The seed of the current conflict begins with that fact. The vast majority of Palestinians completely rejected the Jewish narrative that living in the area 2000 years ago created a legitimate right to return.

When the Zionist movement began and grew, there were no nation states in the section of the Mideast at issue. The Ottoman empire had been the political master of the area for 450 years. The Turks retained control until WWI when they were defeated by the Allies. Great Britain captured Jerusalem and Damascus. The Versailles peace conference awarded the British a Mandate to govern the area. The Brits remained in charge until 1948. During the Mandate, Jewish emigration to the region gradually increased and the ascension of Hitler in Germany and the anticipation of another bloody war in Europe accelerated the process. The Jews were 11% of the population in 1920, 20% by the mid 30’s and 31% at the end of WWII. They were still a minority though. The Zionist claim to a Jewish state received recognition from the British empire in 1916 through the Balfour Declaration. That declaration, while recognising the legitimacy of a homeland for the Jews in Palestine also stated that the rights of the local population should not be prejudiced. During the Mandate, the British accommodated the nationalist aspirations of other Arab based states- both Saudi Arabia and Iraq became independent countries in 1932. The growing profile of the Jewish claim to a state and the rising emigration led to a Palestinian revolt from 1936-1939. The British, in response, clamped own on Jewish emigration in an effort to accommodate the Palestinians. There were constant skirmishes and violent outbreaks involving Zionists, Palestinians and British forces throughout this era- right up to the end of the Mandate in 1948. It was bloody. The Jews developed a “shadow state” apparatus, preparing themselves for the end of the British occupation. The Palestinians were less united and poorly organised with many internal leadership battles. At the end of WWII, the British announced their intention to leave and created two separate commissions to establish a structure of governance after their departure. They both concluded a partition of the land was an appropriate remedy to accommodate a Jewish state and a Palestinian state. The parties were unable to reach an agreement and the British, in frustration and running out of time, turned the issue over to the newly created United Nations. After rancorous debate, the United Nations voted for a two state solution with 55 percent of the land assigned to the Jews and 45 percent to the Palestinians. The Jewish leadership immediately accepted the decision, but the Arabs nations and peoples rejected it outright. The “rejectionist” position has been the dominant view in the Arab world since 1948 and remains the majority view today. It is the explicit argument proffered by Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranians.

The British then departed and Israel declared statehood and was immediately recognised by the United States and the USSR. The Arab states- Egypt, Jordan and Syria immediately attacked Israel with the goal of eliminating the new state quickly. They failed- Israel prevailed and the Arabs lost the 1948-49 war. At armistice, Israel now held 70% of the British Mandate territory. Egypt occupied Gaza and the Jordanians held the West Bank. Jerusalem, originally classified as an “Open City” in the UN plan was split between Israel and Jordan. This “green line" held until 1967. The impact of the 1948 was was enormous and long lasting. Israel achieved its goal of a nation state with a majority Jewish population. The Palestinians had the opposite experience- Nakba- the “catastrophe" with 800,000 Palestinians from land now controlled by Israel living as refugees in Gaza, the West Bank and surrounding Arab nations. And in 2024, refugees they remain! There are libraries full of literature discussing whether the Palestinians left the land voluntarily or were forcibly removed by Israeli troops or, at minimum under duress because of the threat of force. This massive dislocation of Palestinian Arabs from their land is the source of the bitterness and hatred surrounding the conflict. The Palestine demand for a “Right of Return” to their villages and towns in Israel always complicates any negotiation because Israel can never make such a concession because it would threaten the Jewish majority requirement of the Zionist project.

Frequent skirmishes and outbreaks of violence occurred over rhetoric next 20 years, but Israel systematically built a modern state. 1967 is the next critical benchmark which created today’s reality. In the late 1960’s, Egypt led by Nasser and the other Arab states surrounding Israel, heightened their anti Israel rhetoric, initiated a military buildup and threatened a full economic blockade. The public goal remained the same- driving Israel into the sea and eliminating it from the map of the Middle East. Israel pre-empted the anticipated Arab attack and won a decisive victory. Israel destroyed Egypt’s airforce, occupied Gaza, the Sinai, the Golan Heights, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Another overwhelming military victory for Israel and a cataclysmic defeat for the Arabs. Israel now assumed administrative control over the West Bank and Gaza and was responsible for governing 4 million Palestinians. The Six Day War had major consequences. It established the borders that exist today and locked in the Palestinians as refugees in Israeli occupied territory.

The Egyptians and Syrians took one more shot at at destroying Israel in the 1973- the Yom Kippur war. A surprise attack resulted in significant early losses for the IDF, but the tide turned and Israel prevailed again and routed the invaders. The “politics” changed after the war. The Egyptians, under Sadat’s leadership felt they had saved face in the 1973 campaign and agreed to negotiate a permanent peace with the Israelis. With American involvement in the negotiations, Egypt recognised Israel, committed to a peaceful relationship and recovered the Sinai territory. The settlement agreement recognised that the long term status of the West Bank and Gaza remained open and the parties agreed to future negotiations. The 1973 war was the last attempt by Arab nation states to impose a military solution. Jordan eventually completed an agreement with Israel and commenced full diplomatic relations. Until October 7, 2023 Israel was free from a direct military attack by an outside force.

The losers in this scenario were the Palestinians. They were stuck in Gaza and the West Bank as refugees under Israeli military control and any prospect of an independent Palestinian state in the region was extremely slim. The next phase of the conflict was more overt Palestinian nationalism which was not dependent on military support from the major Arab states. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was created in 1964 and led by Yasser Arafat. Their original charter called for the destruction of Israel and creation of a Palestinian state on the land currently held by Israel. From 1964 to 1994, they continued with that policy and with varying methods conducted a violent 30 year assault on the Israeli Zionist venture. They became the world’s most famous and notorious terrorists with the Munich Olympics attacks, airplane hijackings, kidnappings, border incursions into Israel to kill civilians. They also attempted to create a “victim” narrative which would gain international support and sympathy. They attacked Israel from Lebanon and were eventually driven from Beirut in the 80’s. A homegrown revolt in Gaza and the West Bank (the 1st Intifada) proceeded in the late 80’s. Locals, including children, attacked Israeli soldiers with stones and public pressure increased on Israel to enter into negotiations with the PLO to break the impasse.

The Oslo phase followed in the 90’s. These negotiations resulted in a preliminary agreement between the Israelis and the PLO. The PLO recognised the legitimacy of the Israeli state and committed to the elimination of terrorist or military incursions into Israel. In return, the PLO now the PLA assumed political and security control over a large portion of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The parties agreed to a supplemental series of negotiations where “final” issues would be resolved. The stated goal was two nation states for two peoples. Rightists in Israel opposed the plan and Prime Minster Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli extremist. the negotiations stalled until 2000 when a major effort was made by Prime Minister Barak of Israel, Yessir Arafat and President Clinton. The Israelis offered the Palestinians 90% of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. The phrase goes- “The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity” and Arafat rejected the proposal. Multiple rounds of American sponsored negotiations have proceeded since then, but never has an agreement been as close as it was in 2000. The Israelis hardened their position, particularly after a second and more violent Intifada proceed from 2001 to 2004. Hundreds of Israeli civilians were killed in terrorist attacks, including a series of suicide bombings. Israel built more walls and tightened security. They unilaterally withdrew from Gaza. Hamas, which never accepted Israel’s legitimacy beat the PLA in a Gaza election in 2006 and assumed political control there. The Israeli settlement movement in the West Bank exploded and 100,000 settlers in 2001 is 700,000 settler today. Many of the settlements are on land the Israelis had offered the Palestinians in the 2000 negotiations and today it is hard to see a map with a contiguous Palestinian state in the West Bank. On paper, hopeless. Iran then sponsored Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, supplying funds, training, weapons and missiles. For the first time since the 70’s Israel now confronts a threat from another nation - state in the neighbourhood.

This brings us to October 7th, the Israeli response in Gaza, the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah and direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran. A 75 year journey has brought the parties to a difficult place. Israel has achieved incredible success. It has a strong economy, is a leader in tech and science, has a formidable military and is supported by the world’s most formidable superpower the United States. They have now been recognised by the Gulf States and were in serious negotiations with the Saudis before October 7, 2023. That process is on HOLD! Hamas has been crushed but the ultimate plan for Gaza and the West Bank is a mystery. Israel has tremendous political polarisation and the far right settler movement is openly calling for annexation of the West Bank. They are vague on what happens to the Palestinians there. Certainly, no Israeli citizenship which means a permanent second class status for Palestinians similar to South African apartheid or the Jim Crow American South. Such a result would be a complete departure from the goals of Israel’s founding documents and principles. If history is any guide, things will go poorly for the Palestinians, although Israel is again being treated was rogue state by the majority of the international community. Always an optimist, I am selectively pessimistic here.