Israel and the Mideast (Part 5)
The Israeli military response to the brutal Hamas October 7, 2023 attack is still in progress. The conflict has been raging for over year. Permanent ceasefire attempts have gone nowhere. The risk of escalation to a wider regional war has come to fruition. Israel is now in open warfare with Hezbollah in Lebanon has has exchanged in direct missile and air strikes with Iran. It has been several months since we discussed this issue and the timing is ripe for an analysis of where we are, how we got here and where the conflict may be going. The region and the world are on edge.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas, the governing Palestinian entity in Gaza and a “terrorist" organisation as classified by the United States and the European Union attacked Israel without warning. The military strike killed 1300 Israelis, predominantly civilians and also resulted in 250 hostages being forcibly removed from Israel to Gaza. The attack was clear violation of international law and the global community generally recognised that the means and methods employed by Hamas were war crimes. They intentionally targeted and murdered civilians, attacked private citizens in their homes, assaulted attendees at a music festival, sexually abused women, burned people alive in safe houses, videotaped and broadcast many of the most heinous attacks on social media and were basically unsparing in their application of violence. A dark day- more Jews were killed on October 7th than at any time since the Holocaust. No fair evaluation of the current situation should ever forget the crimes committed by Hamas- people have a tendency to manifest faulty memories with the passage of time. I will not forget!
Israel decided that Hamas- which has always denied Israel’s right to exist as a nation-state was now an existential threat to Israel's survival and that the long term security of Israel demanded the complete destruction of Hamas as a military and political actor. The United States has consistently defended Israel’s right to act in self defence under these extraordinary circumstances. Israel also proclaimed a second policy goal- the release of all the hostages- a goal on its face difficult to achieve during active military operations in Gaza. A partial cease fire several months into the conflict achieved the release of 100 hostages in exchange for several hundred Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. However, Israel resumed aggressive military operations immediately after the temporary cease fire time frame elapsed. Israel has clearly achieved enormous tactical military success against Hamas in the past 13 months. The Hamas leadership group has been wiped out, including the recent killing of Hamas Commander Sinwar. Israel also assassinated the Hamas political chieftain, in Iran of all places, while he was attending the funeral of Iran’s President. A truly daring and bold intelligence and military success. Hamas missile strike capacity has been totally destroyed and the majority of their ground brigades have been killed although estimates are they still have 10,000 active fighters in Gaza and more recruits every day. The Israelis have destroyed vast amounts of the Gaza physical infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and residential buildings. Entire neighbourhoods are rubble. Approximately 44,000 Palestinians have been killed and thousands more wounded. The vast majority of Gaza’s two million occupants have been displaced from their homes- many on multiple occasions after Israeli military evacuation orders. International organisations describe the situation on the ground as “dire” and food and water shortages have put Gaza at the abyss- facing total destruction and becoming essentially uninhabitable. Delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestinians has been erratic and the parties constantly blame the other for the disaster on the ground. Images spread rapidly on social media and the level of destruction and death is putting Israel under intense international pressure. The pictures are not pretty!
Concurrent with the sustained Israeli invasion of Gaza are now “hot” conflicts with Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah has been firing missiles into Israel since October 7 as a sign of support for Hamas. Thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes in northern Israel. For months, Israel responded with retaliatory and proportional missile and drone strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Recently, with Hamas on its heels in Gaza, Israel made the decision to aggressively degrade Hezbollahs’ position in Lebanon and commenced aggressive air, missile and land operations. Early reports are that Hezbollah’s long feared missile strike capacity has been seriously compromised and over 2000 Hezbollah militants have been killed. Most important, the entire Hezbollah political leadership, including the legendary Nasrallah, have been killed by systematic and precise Israeli airstrikes. The quality of Israeli intelligence on the location of Hezbollah leaders and the key missile and weapons centres has been astonishing. Hezbollah is now on its back foot and experts question whether they retain the capacity to strike Israel in any material way. Again, international calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon are ignored by Israel because they have concluded that the military decapitation of both Hamas and Hezbollah is within their grasp. Israel is now confident it’s citizens may soon be able to return to their homes in northern Israel.
Finally, direct military engagement with Iran. Iran attacked Israel with 300 missiles and drones after the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran. Israel, with the assistance of the United States, successfully rebuffed that attack. Israel then successfully killed Iranian intelligence leadership in Damascus and Hezbollah leadership in Beirut. Iran responded with a more aggressive missile attack against Israel proper and again little damage was done because Israel’s Iron Dome defence system is very effective. Israel then recently responded with precise air and missile attacks against Iran’s military infrastructure , including its air defence system and reportedly inflicted great damage. In a tit for tat world, the ball is now in Iran’s court. If they do up the ante, do not be surprised if Israel responds with attacks on Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. A major escalation there and all bets are off. Israel’s goal is regime change in Iran because they believe Iran is the source of all their problems- Hamas and Hezbollah could not exist without Iranian funding, weapons and training.
Currently a sideshow, but a strong candidate to be the featured zone of conflict in the near future is the West Bank. Tension is rising daily. Three million Palestinians are now living in close proximity to 700,000 settlers. Amazing- the Israeli population has grown from 100,000 to 700,000 in 20 years- the result of conscious policy decisions by the Netanyahu government. Settler violence against Palestinians communities is common and generally unchecked by Israeli authorities. Israel’s military retains the right to enter the West Bank to root out terrorist cells and raids have increased significantly since October 7. Recent polls of Palestinians in the West Bank show 60% of the population would still support Hamas even after the October 7 attack and its aftermath. The ruling PLA government is corrupt and unpopular. This reality contributes to Israel’s lack of enthusiasm for renewed proposals for a two star solution- the parties simply do not trust one another.
As the dust clears in Gaza and eventually Lebanon, there are three realities a “victorious" Israel must confront in the near term. Israel’s global public image is in tatters. Significant global majorities are highly critical of the nature and scope of the operations in Gaza and Lebanon and many use the word “genocide" to describe the situation. Anti-semitism is rearing its ugly head with renewed passion with Jews feeling pressure even in the United States and Western Europe. Inevitably, as with any conflict, there will be examinations of possible war crimes and human rights violations. Specifically, has Israel targeted civilians in Gaza? If Israel targeted Hamas military operations and facilities, did Israel protect civilians and avoid the use of indiscriminate or disproportionate force? Has Israel violated humanitarian law principles in its management if humanitarian supplies and in its displacement of civilian populations? The Israelis will vigorously fight any charges of this type and will blame Hamas for civilian casualties because they hide in civilian areas and structures and use the civilian populace as human shields. No doubt, Gaza present enormous challenges to an Israeli military with very broad objectives, but the overwhelming and graphic destruction of physical infrastructure and 44,000 dead Palestinians (at least half civilians) will put Israel on the defensive in these international forums. Second, even if Israel achieves its military objectives, what is the post war plan? Who will govern these areas? How are 7 million Israelis going to live with 7 million embittered Palestinians unless a strategy is formulated that even hints at a better future? How will the West Bank be pacified? Is there a pathway to a two state solution? I doubt it- that concept is approaching a Disney type “fantasy” level. Will Israel’s campaign reignite dormant anti-semitic feelings around the globe? Third, Israel believes Iran is the ultimate bad actor here. They are the demon behind the curtain fomenting all these terrorist groups. Is it the time to go after Iran and effect regime change. The rest of region would like to see the Ayatollahs go as well. Would the US cooperate- a question that will receive a fresh look depending on the results of the American Presidential election.
Many questions, few answers- stay alert!
