Election Post Mortem
I am so glad the campaign is over. Over 2 billion dollars spent and no serious debate on major issues that will impact our future. Well done; China, AI, Tech, Privacy, Climate, Migration- maybe you will be on the dance card next time! It is hard not to be cynical when you confront the reality that Donald Trump will return to the White House with a narrow popular vote victory and a decisive win in the Electoral College. He will win the popular vote 50% to 48.5% for Ms Harris and the Electoral vote count is 312 to 246. Trump swept the 7 battleground states with margins ranging from 1 to 3 points. The Republicans regained control of the Senate with a 53-47 edge and held the House with the narrowest of majorities- 220 to 215. First things first- clear your head- this is not a monumental victory or landslide. Roosevelt, Nixon, LBJ and Reagan all won historic victories with over 60% of the vote. Trump’s popular vote margin also fell short of Reagan in 1980, Bush in 1988, Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Bush Jr in 2004, Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Biden in 2020. In fact, his popular vote margin will not even match Hillary Clinton’s vote percentage in 2016. So cut the nonsense on mandates. It is still a 50-50 country and Trump will probably have only 2 years to implement his most radical and society changing proposals. He does begin with a higher approval rating than ever before- 48% and his team will be better positioned to hit the ground running. The Democrats certainly need to evaluate how they managed to lose to such an unqualified and unfit person. The solid Biden majority disappeared and Trump, while actually involved in multiple criminal proceedings over the past 4 years, improved his performance with non college educated Latinos and blacks- particularly young men. Much will be written- the standard recriminations and blame game stuff. Very little will be wise, insightful or helpful in positioning the party differently down the road. Ignore almost everything. Things change quickly. Events have a funny way of changing the narrative. However, there are some broad themes that should be openly recognised when analysing why things went the way they did. I happily share my observations.
Theory No 1 and the default option for complacent Democrats is that 2024 was particularly bad environment for incumbents. Political headwinds everywhere. It was a disastrous year worldwide for ruling parties. England, France, Japan, South Africa, South Korea and Holland all had seismic shifts. The German leadership is on the way out and even winners like Modi in India fell far short of expectations. The explanations are conventional wisdom personified; Post Covid malaise, frustration with elites, migration concerns, economic uncertainty. Since Covid, the challenger has won 40 of 54 elections in Western democracies. Covid has been a game changer, undermining education patterns, public health systems, and workplace practices.and expectations. It certainly contributed to inflationary pressures. So the thinking goes- with the passage of time we will get back to normal and the political balance will be restored. HMM!
I generally subscribe to a modified version of Theory No 1. Harris and the Democrats were extremely vulnerable because on the three “I’s”- inflation, immigration and international instability. These three silos presented enormous opportunities for Trump because he could argue with his repetitive simplicity that the national profile in all three of those categories was much better when he was in office. The easy refrain- are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? When Trump left office inflation was 2%. Under Biden, it rose to 9.5% and although coming down now is still at 3.5%. Citizens experienced an “affordability” crisis. The basics- housing, gas, insurance, groceries all went thru the roof price wise. Pocketbook issues drive votes, particularly for those citizens living from pay check to pay check. For the low information voter, the cost of living profile is the only info they need when evaluating an administration. Ask Jimmy Carter! The good news of Bidenomics- low unemployment, avoiding a recession and major legislative victories on infrastructure, the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act were overwhelmed in voter minds by high prices. The Dems argued it was worldwide phenomena but the Democrats were vulnerable to the charge that out of control government spending directly contributed to the severity of the inflation. Even progressive economists like Larry Summers criticised Biden for underestimating the staying power from inflationary pressures from his last burst of Covid related spending. It was layup for Trump. Interestingly, when Harris was nominated, Trump’s edge on the question of who could handle the economy better was 22 points. By election day, it was 7 points which suggests the Harris campaign was rather effective.
Immigration was the second most important issue in this cycle. Again, the “numbers" crushed Harris. Trump’s well earned reputation for strict border controls was juxtaposed to record border crossings in the first two years of the Biden Administration. Again, it didn’t just happen on its own. Biden made decisions on Humanitarian Parole standards, Temporary Protected status categories and criteria for managing asylum petitions that acted as a magnet for emigres from Central America, Cuba and Haiti. He changed policies in the last 12 months and border crossings were substantially reduced but the sense that the country had lost control of the situation was firmly implanted in the public mind. The issue was accentuated by the ever increasing transfer of emigres to cities in the north. Brilliant move by Republican border Governors. Harris still won states like New York, Illinois, California and Massachusetts, but the margins were down about 6-8 points from 2020 and the early exit polling pointed toward concern about illegal immigration as the basis for the change. Overall, the immigration and border issue was a tiebreaker for many undecided voters- again think of the non college educated male and his reaction to a flood of undocumented emigres who may now compete with him for jobs or push his wages downward. The Democrats committed political malpractice on the border. She should have been more decisive and campaigned on an aggressive border control mantra. Basically, I will close it until we get our arms around the general dynamic operating here.
Finally, the international situation was not helpful. The botched Afghan withdrawal, “hot” wars in Ukraine and the Middle East all occurred after Trump left office and Biden took over. Again- a convenient argument made for a world based on tweets. “When I was President there were no wars. I am strong and Biden-Harris is weak and all these wars and violence are a reaction to their weakness." Americans don’t spend a lot of time on foreign policy but this contrast was rather striking. I doubt this issue moved an outcome impacting number of voters but Harris certainly struggled with this set of issues.
Frankly, this issue profile suggests the Republican should have won in a landslide. Polls early in the year showed Republican like Haley doing much better than Trump in head to head matchups. His character and temperament issues made the election closer than it needed to be. 70% of the country thought the country was going in the wrong direction and Biden’s approval rating was 38-40%. Harris started campaign at 35% approval but ended at 49% approval. This suggests the campaign actually performed well communications wise. She consolidated the party quickly after the necessary and delayed Biden withdrawal, managed an outstanding convention and destroyed Trump in their only debate. She controlled her big events well. She got the race to a tossup, but could not close the deal. A sense that she lacked the necessary “gravitas” was never totally dispelled, but the reality is she had an uphill climb and should probably be applauded for her effort.
Finally, I strongly believe a fourth category of issues broke heavily for Trump in the closing days of the campaign. The Democrats lost the “culture” war- BIG TIME. Identity politics should be retired forever. Simply stated, the progressive/leftie cultural agenda is NUTS and a major turnoff to millions of persuadable voters. Why are Democrats losing the common man- the working guy- the non college educated? I will tell you why- here are the culprits: “Defund the Police”, “Cancel Culture”, “Woke”, “Latinx”, “Woke Mind Virus”, “Speech Codes”, “Trigger Warnings”, "Equity Language Guidelines”, “Safe Spaces”, “Micro-Aggression”. Basically, a political philosophy based on grievances and the confidence that all issues can be reduced to oppressor- oppressed or victimisers- victims narratives. An argument that every relationship is defined by unfairness or inequity. A message of self pity and woe is me- I hate it! If you take the wrong side of a particular culture issue, you are automatically labeled a racist, a white supremacist, a homophobe, an xenophobe, a transphobe or a misogynist. I empathise with the average guy raising a family and paying the mortgage who may be thinking- This has nothing to do with me or my problems; these people don’t know me and they certainly don’t include me in their definitions of victims or the oppressed. In fact, they seem to be inferring I am a bad guy because I don’t automatically agree with them about trans boys now participating in women’s sports. The Republicans identified this issue early and hammered it home. Harris, a product of California’s progressive and politically correct culture was vulnerable here. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were bombarded with commercials the last three weeks showing Harris on tape saying she supported government funding of trans- surgeries for illegal immigrants and convicted criminals being held in federal prisons or detention centres. It was 35% of the ad spend and it worked. The final line of the ad was “Trump is for YOU and she is for THEM”. The Harris campaign did not respond although reports confirm that both Obama and Bill Clinton recommended she clear the air. There are many bad assumptions on the left on the thought processes of voters. Black men don’t support criminals and actually want more police in their neighbourhoods. Latino men may not think it is great idea to admit 1 million undocumented aliens, even if they happen to be of Latino heritage. Individuals of all groups hold wildly different views on all types of issues. There is great diversity in that regard. Politicians need to present universal messages with the overarching umbrella being a credible message that you care about “ALL” Americans. Maybe next time.
Many are booking a move to Europe! The Doomsday Clock has been re-activated! Democracy is Dying! Western Civilisation is in the death throes! A small sampling of reactions to the Trump victory. Well, I do expect it will go poorly. He will defeat any good faith effort to normalise him or give him a second chance. His nominations of individuals like Gaetz, Gabbard, Hesgeth and Kennedy to major positions confirm that his worst instincts remain. He is not evolving- he is what he is! BUT- I am cautiously confident that our institutions will hold- we will survive and the appropriate lessons will be learned. We will get back to the idea that the moral arc of the universe bends toward justice. With a little luck, 1 or 2 of his disruptive or crazy ideas may produce something positive. See- I am an optimist! The United States will be here long after Donald Trump is gone. Manage the turmoil with class, elegance and confidence.
