Biden and the State of the Union

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

I promised periodic updates on the 2024 Presidential campaign. It is not a mission I embark on with a sense of joy. We previously evaluated candidate performance at three Republican debates. We shared our forecast that the Republican race was an empty exercise- a full scale rush to “TRUMPLAND.” We were correct, but admit that no special or politically keen antenna was required to make this judgement. The Republican Party confirmed its status as a Trump cult. DeSantis was a terrible candidate and collapsed quickly. A quick bye bye to Messrs Pence, Christie, Ramaswamy and Scott. Nikki Haley survived and achieved her goal of a two person face-off with Trump. 40% support in New Hampshire and South Carolina followed by 20-30 percent in 15 Super Tuesday states eliminated her as well. Trump clinched the nomination yesterday and President Biden reached the delegate threshold for the Democratic nomination. We are now confronted with an 8 month campaign- one that is guaranteed to be nasty and brutish. It is tempting to take a vacation from politics until actually casting a ballot in November.

The current polling conducted by major news organisations is clear and consistent. President Biden’s re-election bid is in serious trouble. His approval rating is 38%. To compare, President Obama was at 48% at the same stage in 2012 and President Trump was at 44% in 2020. Obama won- Trump lost! Biden has as deep hill to climb. The head to head polls show Trump with a 2 to 4% lead nationally with Trump leading in the key swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. Biden retains a small lead in Pennsylvania. Bad numbers everywhere for the President.

We are overwhelmed with articles by pundits analysing the reasons behind the public’s disaffection and disappointment with President Biden. Why is his standing so low when his record contains several noteworthy, even historic, legislative accomplishments. The most familiar political refrain is “It’s the Economy Stupid!” The Biden economy has strong growth, a widely predicted recession has been avoided, productivity is soaring, manufacturing jobs are returning, wages are up and the unemployment rate is at record low. Inflation is receding rapidly and the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates this year. Furthermore, he kept his promise to work in a bipartisan fashion and has passed and signed major bills on infrastructure, climate projects, renewable energy, environmental protection, pandemic relief, education and student debt. Finally, on foreign policy, he has withdrawn from Afghanistan (in artfully but popular), organized a broad coalition to support Ukraine in its response to Russia’s invasion, engaged effectively with China and aggressively supported our ally Israel after the heinous attack by Hamas. You cannot assert that he has been missing in action as a world leader.

All to no avail- 38%! Avoid overanalysing the situation. There are definitive reasons in the data and it isn’t simply a matter of poor messaging by the administration. The primary cause of Biden’s political difficulties is the widely held perception that he is too “damn old.” He is 82 now and would be 87 when he finished second term. The oldest president in American History and it is not close. Complicating the situation is that he looks and acts the part. Mental confusion, gaffes, memory lapses, slurring of words, awkward pauses and a slow and stiff gait all contribute to a sense of physical and cognitive decline. He has low energy, conducts few press conferences or one on one interviews and has very limited and controlled public appearances. The prosecutor in the classified documents case concluded that Biden was a “sympathetic, well meaning elderly man with a poor memory.” OUCH! David Axelrod and James Carville, two political pros with a record of success in Democratic Presidential campaigns have both openly expressed the concern that the President’s age and perceived mental status is the primary obstacle to his re-election. Unfortunately, the old guy narrative will not improve over time- you just get older. The issue is real and the only conceivable way to combat it is to rebut the presumption by functioning at a high level. Engage- more public appearances- a spring in your step and cogent and compelling speeches and interviews. The lack of confidence in Vice President Harris magnifies the impact of this entire narrative.

The second concern is that despite an economy that make economists happy- many Americans are not feeling the love. 43% of Americans in a recent poll stated that Biden’s economic policies had made their personal and family financial status WORSE! Again, no deep thinking necessary. Inflation exploded in 2021 and 2022 and citizens everywhere felt the pain. It is now down to 3% , but certain core elements remain sticky. Rents, shelter costs, auto insurance and food prices are still substantially higher than when President Biden took office. Mortgage rates are higher. Pocketbook issues- what people see and feel on a daily or monthly basis- are not presently going the President’s way. Trends are positive, but voters may be already locked in to a particular narrative. Finally, the voters who report the most dissatisfaction with the economy are key components of Biden’s winning 2020 coalition. Blacks, Latinos and voters under 30 are deserting the President in droves. His polling is down by a solid 10% from 2020 with all these constituencies. If he doesn’t recover his base, he is toast. To demonstrate, 50% of eligible young voters cast ballots in 2020 and Biden defeated Trump with this group 65-35. Today, only 40% intend to vote in November and Biden’s advantage over Trump is 52-48. Fewer voters and a lower margin is not a good formula. The polls show a similar weakening of support with Latinos, African Americans and, to a certain extent, Asians. On issues, Trump leads Biden 49-37 on the economy and 45-29 on border security.

The state of the world is not triggering a rush to President Biden either. Instead the the general volatility and instability associated with record border crossings, a bloody stalemate in Ukraine, a horrific mess in Gaza and continuing tensions with an aggressive China create an aura that things are out of control. It may be unfair to President Biden but the evolving mantra on the international stage is that “the center will not hold.”  The perception that authoritarians and extremists have the upper hand is not a comforting political profile for an incumbent American President. The culture wars are also a depressing backdrop to this campaign. Non stop migration, anti-semitism- battles over DEI, “woke” debates, homeless people on the streets of major cities all combine to create major headwinds to a Biden re-election. Third party candidates , Robert F Kennedy Jr, the Green and Libertarian Party candidates, a possible “NO Labels” ticket potentially damage Biden more than Trump. Third party votes hurt Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016.

This rather foreboding mosaic confronted President Biden at last week’s State of the Union speech. It was a de facto commencement of the campaign. The initial media assessment and anecdotal evidence I gathered from family, friends and colleagues is that Biden hit a home run. Descriptions include “great,” “outstanding,” “awesome,” “focused,” “feisty,” “energetic,” “off the charts”- a positive vibe that the game was now on and Biden was up to the task. Well, to continue my recent pattern of being a cassandra and challenging conventional wisdom, I disagree, I thought he was “fine.” More importantly, Amalia my spouse, blessed with a more refined political antenna than I, said he was “OK.” He hit the issues, survived 70 minutes in front of a national audience and probably rebutted the general questions about his mental fitness. To that extent, mission accomplished. However, I doubt we will see much movement in the polls and I am very skeptical young voters watched the speech.

Context is important here. I support the President. A Trump victory is catastrophic. He is a pathological liar, subject to huge civil judgements, under criminal indictment in 4 separate courts, a proponent of the “big lie” and leads a movement that is nativist, isolationist, protectionist and super comfortable with autocratic leaders and undemocratic tendencies. His speeches are a combination of disinformation and misinformation. A political movement that is based on “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” is based on grievance and seems to dislike or even hate a majority of the people who live here. The Trump party presents America as a cesspool, characterised by violence, carnage, gloom and negativity. The Reagan coalition, based on optimism, confidence, global leadership has left the building. The stakes are incredibly high- basically the preservation of the rule of law and the survival of our governing institutions . The current electoral map is discouraging and I apologise for being a bearer of negative tidings. Eight months remain and perhaps the picture will brighten as the clear nature of the choice come into greater focus. Biden does have significant resources and should be able to run effective media in all the swing states. Several strategic avenues are available for him to get to 270 electoral votes- the cleanest is to preserve the “Blue Wall"- Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Hope springs eternal.